Above Average Winter

Um... Where's winter?

Nice looking forecast for March... wait... It's still February!

We are currently sitting in the top 4 of the warmest winters on record.

It is certainly strange to see so much brown across the state of Iowa this winter, and snow that barely lasts on the ground for a week. It's got a lot of people wondering what spring may hold?

Unfortunately, there are far too many factors to really get an accurate long range forecast out through spring. It's like taking a 1,000 yard shot, blindfolded, while taking directions from a computer through a walkie-talkie. Computer models are reasonably accurate out to only about two weeks or so. Our complicated atmosphere wreaks havoc on the computer's ability to solve physical equations and make good forecasts. So if the skill is 90% for one day out, it's about 30% for a week out and 5% for two weeks out.

But taking a stab at the long range shots, from now until March begins I'd expect below average precip. and above average temperatures.  

Image Courtesy Climate Prediction Center

Checking in with Brad's forecast it looks like we'll actually be cooling down to only 4-8 degrees above average which some might consider chilly. So enjoy the weekend, and do something outside!