Too Early to Talk Turkey?

Well, as is the case many times with powerful spring-like systems, this one has changed overnight. The moisture supply was less and there was more warm air resulting in only freezing sprinkles. Looking at the forecast, Tuesday's higher humidity will add a spring-like feeling to the air and that feeling already has me looking ahead to spring turkey hunting!

Can you believe turkey season is only 48 days away! Youth season is even earlier starting April 7th and already I'm thinking about dusting off the blind and testing my calls. Of course, going to the Iowa Deer Classic and seeing all the toys and decoys only fueled the fire even more.

With several weeks to prepare for the next hunting season, now is the perfect time to take someone new and introduce them to the outdoors. Many times the biggest excuse folks have for not hunting is "I never took hunter's safety." If this fits you or someone you know, it is very simple to get certified for hunter's safety in Iowa. There are two hurdles to jump: coursework + a field day.

According to the DNR there are two main options available for hunter safety education. You can complete the class + a field day, or if your time is limited you can complete the coursework online at Hunter-Ed.com and HunterExam + a field day. Hunter's Ed is typically offered March 1 through November 15th. Now is a great time to sign up for these courses and introduce someone new to the wonderful world of the Iowa outdoors!

On a side note- I just ran across this story about a kid surviving a cyote attack. Pretty amazing!

Slick Start Tuesday

We've got some spring-like swings in the forecast this week as highs go from the 30s to 50s and back again. When freezing temperatures meet up with cold rain an icy mess is born. It looks like we'll set the stage for a slick morning start here in Iowa on Tuesday.

Tuesday morning temperatures will start off in the 20's thanks to a Canadian high pressure at the surface. Meanwhile clouds and moisture will stream in and start to squeeze out some precipitation early in the day.

It should start off as a little sleet and freezing rain mixed before changing to all freezing drizzle and freezing rain. Slick conditions will greet most morning commuters with a glaze to up to 0.1" of ice in central Iowa.

Once temps warm up above freezing around 9 or 10am, the roads will become mainly wet and travel will improve. Rain showers and even some rumbles of thunder are possible with this storm for the rest of our soggy Tuesday. Keep track of any changes with ABC5 Weather.

The whole storm system will wrap up with some light snow accumulations early Wednesday in northern Iowa. Most of us will see 1/3" to 3/4" of beneficial water with this storm. There is very little frost in the ground so this system should help the rainfall deficit with another soaking rain.

The wind will become a factor on Wednesday! Don't be surprised to see fowl weather with winds 20 to 30mph with gusts up around 50mph from the WNW! Take care and add about twice as much time to your Tuesday commute so you can slide into work safely tomorrow!

Great Weekend For Sportsmen!

First off, congrats to West86! Your comment just won you free tickets to the Iowa Deer Classic Feb 24th-26th at Hy-Vee Hall in Des Moines! Send me an e-mail cconoan@myabc5.com as soon as possible to collect your prize.

West86 brings up a great point about shed hunting -a rising star in popular hunting. For any who may be interested, this has nothing to do with spotting & stalking small utility buildings (someone asked once). Deer 'shed' their antlers every year typically between January-March leaving these token trophies on the forest floor.

I know a lot of hunters will be taking to the woods looking for antlers after our excitement for deer hunting is rejuivinated by outdoormen's shows like the Deer Classic. Looking at the 7-day forecast this weekend is squeezing right in-between some chilly/blustery conditions on Thur./Fri. and a major storm system Sunday/Monday. Our snow-free ground and comfortably cool temperatures are the perfect combination for taking a hike through the brush, shed hunting!

If your top choice is fishing tackle the Mid Iowa Bassmasters are putting on a Swap Meet & Boat Show the 25th -26th.

This one's held over at the 4-H Building on the Iowa State Fair Grounds. This show features seminars, boats and boatloads of tackle and it looks like a great alternative to the Deer Classic. Google tells me it's only 4.0 mi. and about 10 minutes from the Fairgrounds to Hy-Vee Hall for sportsmen who enjoy both outdoor passions.

So there's no excuses now. Take a break from the new NBC Sports Network or whatever the heck VS became and get out this weekend. We've got a couple good shows in town, guys on the Iowa Sportsman Forum say the fishing bite is picking up, and the shed's are waiting for you. Better get to 'em before the squirrels do.

Rain-Maker on the Way

Normally when a storm moves in this time of year we expect to see some snowfall out of it. February is after all the second snowiest month of the year for central Iowa. We've got a storm moving in to start this week but this time we'll see mainly rain showers and even a rumble of thunder or two with this one.

Rain is not the best news for ice fishers and could spell the end of the hard-water season for most folks south of highway 20. This storm system will bring 1/4" to 1/2" of ice-melting rain along with daily average temperatures above freezing for 2 to 4 days. These two factors combined with winds of 20 to 30mph during the day will put a lot of stress on the remaining ice making conditions unsafe.

Rain is good news for farmers, river fishers and open water anglers in southern/western Iowa. Many Iowa anglers are getting excited for the spring fishing season and the bite is picking up! Water levels have been very low and any moisture and rainfall will bring more good news. Despite the relatively light rainfall amounts, state-wide rain should feed back into the streams and rivers. Runoff nutrients and this subtle increase in current could kick off a nice bite Tuesday and Wednesday. So rain is a good thing!

My managers here at ABC 5 just handed me 5 extra tickets to the Iowa Deer Classic. If you're interested in free tickets, give me your feedback on the blog. Post a comment below about any topic I've covered or one you'd like me to cover. We'll select the winner(s) Wednesday.

Visit the ABC5 Facebook page for more news and promotions.

Above Average Winter

Um... Where's winter?

Nice looking forecast for March... wait... It's still February!

We are currently sitting in the top 4 of the warmest winters on record.

It is certainly strange to see so much brown across the state of Iowa this winter, and snow that barely lasts on the ground for a week. It's got a lot of people wondering what spring may hold?

Unfortunately, there are far too many factors to really get an accurate long range forecast out through spring. It's like taking a 1,000 yard shot, blindfolded, while taking directions from a computer through a walkie-talkie. Computer models are reasonably accurate out to only about two weeks or so. Our complicated atmosphere wreaks havoc on the computer's ability to solve physical equations and make good forecasts. So if the skill is 90% for one day out, it's about 30% for a week out and 5% for two weeks out.

But taking a stab at the long range shots, from now until March begins I'd expect below average precip. and above average temperatures.  

Image Courtesy Climate Prediction Center

Checking in with Brad's forecast it looks like we'll actually be cooling down to only 4-8 degrees above average which some might consider chilly. So enjoy the weekend, and do something outside!

Active Weather Pattern

Well, the gates are open to an active weather pattern across the Midwest and we kicked off this new pattern with Monday's snowfall. Check out how well our computer model matched up with snowfall reports.

We'll take a break from the wintry weather on Valentine's day but we've got another interesting storm moving in on Wednesday. Temperatures will be slightly warmer so it looks like a rain/snow mix at this point. One thing Wednesday's storm will have is a lot more energy than Monday's system. This could potentially lead to a narrow band of moderate snowfall in the state. Some indications place this band right across central Iowa, but the exact track is still up in the air.

Keep track of this storm as it approaches with ABC5 Weather.

Barometric pressure trends will be swinging like a pendulum each day complicating the fishing forecast. As this storm moves in on Wednesday, barometric pressure should fall steadily throughout the day. With cloud cover overhead the best bite this week will be Wednesday.

Arctic Air Helps Ice Fishing Linger for Some

Courtesy IEM linked to the right.

If you've been missing the snow and cold, you're not alone! Here's a quick map of the average winter snowfall in Iowa.

So far Des Moines has only seen about 10 inches with about half of that falling last weekend. We have also seen our warmest winter ever (Des Moines has yet to go below zero). Some locations in central Iowa had marginally safe ice thicknesses before the storm, but our new snow has actually weakened the ice in a lot of locations south of highway 30 making conditions very dangerous. Here's how it works.

Suppose a lake has 5inches of ice and then it snows a few inches on top. Snow is actually a very good insulator shielding the ice from bitter cold temps while allowing the lake water beneath the ice to melt away the bottom layer making it thinner. Clear ice is the safest and strongest ice, meanwhile a layer of snowy/slushy white ice is the weakest and not very safe at all. The Iowa DNR is not recommending folks go ice fishing in central and southern Iowa. Click here for more info.

Here's a map I made of the general ice conditions the first week of February.

Satellite view of Iowa 2-6-12

Around central Iowa, it's probably safest to pack up the ice fishing gear for the season. If you're not ready to quit just yet, take a trip to northeast Iowa. Ice thicknesses are generally safer and surges of bitter cold arctic air will lead to some great ice-making cold nights for the next week or two. Thicknesses should maintain for the next week or so, and in far NE IA they might last into March. 

If you absolutely can't resist the dwindling hard-water this season, stay away from areas of the lake that have open water, snow drifts or even white ice, take a safety rope and travel with a buddy. Use common sense!

Stay safe and good luck!

Low Pressure Makes the Fishing Better!

I was a fisherman long before I ever picked up a gun or a bow. My grandfather had a bait shop in Missouri and I can remember taking bubble baths as a kid with Twister Tails and minnow soft baits in the tub. Now that hunting seasons are over, I'm turning my attention back to my original outdoor passion: fishing.

One thing that has held steady in 20 years of fishing, low pressure makes the fishing better. I think it's analogous to when people raid the grocery store before a big storm. It's natural for animals to feed aggressively when the weather turns foul. Fish can sense the storm coming as the barometric pressure drops and they instinctively prepare for the worst.

What a SLAB! 3.5lbs of delicious Crappie caught on a minnow!
Photo credit- Garett

Check out this picture from a reader over in the Omaha area. We had a major winter storm moving in this weekend with relatively low barometric pressure. But that same bad weather made for some good fishing. True, ice fishing is becoming dangerous in most of the area and the Iowa DNR is not recommending anyone ice fish south of Highway 30, but shore fishing the open waters is paying off! Low pressure is in the forecast for Monday Evening into early Tuesday morning and another local low pressure will move in Thursday evening.

Those two time frames match up nicely with the normal evening increase in feeding activity and would be the best times this week to take the tackle for a spin. So bundle up and get out to enjoy the peace of cool season fishing. Good luck!

Finally, A Snow Storm!

It was November when the last system took aim at central Iowa, and this one is a good one!  Expect a snowy Saturday across Iowa.

Road conditions early Saturday morning available from the
Iowa Environmental Mesonet 

A large upper low will be pulling out of Kansas and heading through central Missouri today placing central Iowa on the snowy side of this storm. Track the snow bands as they set up in central Iowa with ESP:LIVE radar. Snow will steadily accumulate throughout the day and a general 3-5 in central Iowa with 5-10 in SW and west central Iowa. Eastern Iowa might luck out with a trace to 2" in the grass meanwhile the Omaha area could see amounts approach one foot. Here's a look at the advisories from the National Weather Service:



Winter Storm Warnings in effect for central and western Iowa. More info on the NWS homepage here



Wind speeds will steadily pick up and that could cause some blowing and drifting of the snow throughout the day but the heavy/wet nature of this snow will limit that. More good news is temperatures are around/above freezing and treated roads in central and eastern Iowa should be slushy for much of the day. Track the latest on this winter storm at http://www.myabc5.com/

Crankin' Up The Snow Machine

Record High/Lows Across Iowa Feb. 1st

We'll we've set another record high temperature in Des Moines, that's four record highs in a little more than one month. Temperatures reached into the upper 50s and lower 60s shattering the old record of 56 set back in 1987 but this is the warm before a spring-like winter storm.

I thought I'd postpone my hunting season recap due to the talk of the town right now- a strong storm approaching. Here is a graphic with the computer model print out of accumulated snowfall Friday night through Saturday. The first graphic is from our computer models late Tuesday night.

Model Forecast From Tuesday Night

This second one is from Wednesday afternoon.

Model Forecast From Wednesday Afternoon

Models are in agreement that a powerful winter storm will be swinging up from Texas and Oklahoma and impacting Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa with a heavy band of wet snowfall on it's northern side. This storm will have jet stream energy, lift and moisture -the snow machine trifecta of trouble. The million dollar question is just where will the band set up? If the storm takes a southern track, Des Moines and central Iowa gets hammered with 6"-12" but if it stalls out west, we'll see a trace to 2" and the impressive totals will shift west. If it stays on projected course right now, central Iowa could see 4"-8"

My meteorological hunch is it takes a more western track resulting in rain on Friday night, changing to snow early Saturday morning and then a rain/snow mix throughout the day Saturday with snow showers Saturday night. Meanwhile NW IA up around Fort Dodge to Pocahontas to Sioux City could be looking at 10" or more of snow!

One thing's for sure, this is a storm worth watching. Keep tabs with central Iowa's Most Accurate Forecast and I'll have more updates as the storm approaches.