What Goes Up, Must Come Down

We've seen one of the most comfortable Novembers in recent memory with only one brief preview of wintry weather back on Veteran's Day. But that is about to change.

My cousin and I enjoying a 50 degree hunt with no wind!

This year's weather has been exceptional. Des Moines has broken the all-time records for most number of days with temps above 60 degrees (231 days Jan 1^st through November 19^th). Not only did we have extreme heat nearly the entire months of March and July, but the moderate warmth has still been simmering in drought-stricken Iowa.  

So far this November 2012,  75% of the afternoons have been above normal. With all this heat, the entire Midwest and Plains states have maintained warm soils that act like persistent heaters. Without any frost or snow on the ground, the warmth steadily overwhelms Arctic intrusions. And just like a bail of barbed wire that wants to return to its rolled up shape, we've been returning to our mild/dry pattern.

Average 4" soil temps should be 5 to 8 degrees cooler

At some point, Arctic air will return, and if there’s any moisture around we’re talking snow. The classic scenario would be for a storm system to draw warmth and moisture into the Midwest. This energy would then feed the storm allowing it to grow large enough to reach out to the arctic and pull down that bitter cold air. When such a storm blends the two, we’ve got a snowstorm!

A large storm is brewing. This is a computer model forecast for Nov. 28th.

This wintry scenario could be playing out during the week before Shotgun 1! Unseasonable warmth will settle in Thanksgiving week, Black Friday will be cold and windy, and then we’ll see rebounding temps this weekend- the warm before the storm. This storm will likely push into the Midwest and could take a track bringing rain, wind and eventually snow to Iowa. We’ll have to keep an eye on this one as a northern track would spell rain first, then just cold. A track too far south could have this storm missing us entirely and we would see just the cold. This storm system is slated for November 27^th and 28^th and that's a long ways out, so the forecast is sure to change on the exact track of that storm. One thing's for sure, it will get colder after it passes.

For now let’s just enjoy the comfortable air while it's here. And bowhunters can enjoy a cold finish to the first leg of the archery season which should enhance the post-rut bed-to-feed pattern! While we're at it, lets keep dreaming of a fresh blanket of snow telling shot gunners exactly where the best spots to hunt will be…  It could happen, and I’ll be tracking it...