Warm Start to Shotgun

Well, Shotgun season is in our sights and the forecast is looking WARM.

Temps are expected to be above average the first week in December.

There is a little uncertainty built in to the forecast as a storm system may be organizing (or disorganizing) over Iowa. If it holds together, we'll see more clouds and a chance of showers with temps still 10 degrees above average... if it falls apart, it will do so at the hands of a strengthening low in Montana. This storm system would pull in an extremely warm southerly flow in the atmosphere, and the woods would really heat up. Some indications are we could see some 60s the first week of December which is not the news many shot gunners were hoping for. But this warm change fits our fall pattern well, so I guess we should expect it.

So far this Fall has been exceptionally warm. Nearly 70% of afternoon highs in the month of November above average in central Iowa. Many cities set high temperature records just before Veteran's Day. We've also seen the opposite weather with two major surges of Arctic air.

The pattern in the atmosphere has been swinging like a pendulum from cold to hot and back again every 10 to 15 days. We'll see a blast of cold air. Then the chilly air warms into mild air. Finally, near record warmth precedes the temperature cliff and another icy cold air mass blasts in. With only a few exceptions this pattern has held, just rinse and repeat.

It will probably warm up for first week of December and we'll likely have a cold blast the week afterwards. We will see a storm track change at some point as Winter wears nearer. Storms will start moving in from the west and scooting east rather than swooping in from the southwest and racing north-northeast. This change in track will boost our chances of snow and cold. Until then, expect more mild and dry weather... and hey, it may not be such a bad thing. Who hasn't wanted to go deer hunting in December wearing shorts and short-sleeves?

I still wish it would snow. Good luck!