Surprise SNOW!

A monster blizzard dumps 10-20 inches and impacts over 30 states!

I don't know what's worse; our latest storm's unpredictability, Des Moines traffic in the snow, or my ice fishing chances now that a blanket of powder is insulating the ice.

A train of snowflakes over 1,000 miles long wrapped around this storm.

Snow insulates ice, allowing it to warm up and thin from below. So it appears my opportunities for ice fishing are beginning to slip away with every falling flake... and they just keep on falling don't they?

A heavy axis of 8" to 10" fell in central Iowa. Impressive.

Tuesday morning, the heavy snow swath shifted over 90 miles northwest blanketing unsuspecting parts of central Iowa with a heavy winter storm! Central Iowa packed on 6" to 12" of snowfall with a surprise left turn from the February 26th - 27th Blizzard.

Tuesday morning's snow forecast from a model = worthless.

While Iowa didn't see blizzard conditions, some folks picked up 10"-16". This storm's last minute moves surprised forecasters like myself. To make matters worse, the computer models that help us with snowfall predictions were useless and misleading. This all just makes me want to go ice fishing, but now I have shoveling to do...

Ice was 5 to 6 inches thick.

One week ago, I was able to get out on the ice in central Iowa with my neighbor. The edges of the pond had been shredded by wind and warmth, but further out on the ice burg, there was 5.5" of clear ice and we caught a few fish. The ice looked stressed and the overall thickness was borderline for me.

Wind and warm... bad for ice. Imagine this, covered up by snow.

Since then, temperatures have been averaging below freezing. Ice conditions in central Iowa have probably maintained, but I wont fish that pond again until ice-out. The new snow blanket makes it hard to see the quality of our thinning ice and the weight of two heavy snows in a weak will stress the ice. This will create dangerous conditions for central Iowa anglers, so please be careful if you decide to hit the hard water.



If there's one good thing about the tiny, white, hellions that wont seem to stop falling from the sky... they are quite pretty. You'll have to take a break from snow blowing and shoveling and look at the flakes up close. Colder temps and more moisture produce the biggest flakes, and their shape is highly dependent on the temperature of the clouds that created them. One thing's for sure, this latest storm had the perfect snow-making conditions.

Chart provided by Cal-Tech.

So while you're cleaning up the sidewalk, I'll mop up the mess in the Weather Center. We'll get the next one right ;-) Feel free to give me hard time if you see me at the Whitetail Classic. That's March 1st through March 3rd at Hy-Vee Hall in Des Moines.

Be safe and enjoy the snow!

On Thin Ice

Ice fishing season is dangerously close to being over in central Iowa.

This past week, central Iowa saw six straight days of ice loss and unfortunately, we've had several reports of fishermen going through thin ice.

I was out at a fishing spot yesterday to check the ice thickness. Temps were in the 40s, the edges were either open or pretty mushy and thin, but out on the ice the depth was still 6". Last week, the ice was 8" in that spot, and the current thickness lines up nicely with the expected ice loss of 1.5" to 3.5" from my blog "Ice Fishing Hanging on in Central Iowa".


Good news is in the chilly air today and tomorrow as colder Canadian temperatures dive southward. Average temperatures will be cold enough to re-enforce and maintain the current ice pack. Many locations will even grow some ice.

The pattern is changing after Monday. Colder temps will plunge down into Iowa and we will begin an active and cool pattern that could last through the end of the month.

Storm systems will line up and hit Iowa every 3-5 days. Each of these systems should swing in from the west and southwest bringing a brief warm-up, a chance of precip. and then 2-3 days of Canadian/Arctic cold.

Although any wind, rain, and above freezing temps may negatively impact the ice, the strength of the cold could keep ice fishing alive until March.

Good luck and stay safe!

Ice Fishing, My New Late Winter Addiction

The cold wind was picking up as it rattled the portable ice house. Gray gloom and chilly temps surrounded my shack nestled over 8 feet of water. At least the rain had stopped. But now that wind made me wish it was raining and warmer again.

I thought at any moment that next big gust would be just strong enough to send me and my gear para-sledding across the pond. Suddenly, the rod tip tapped, I lifted up and the fight was on!
 

Too bad the fingerling bass wasn't much of a fight! But there were bigger fish there and I was happy to land the first one of the day. It had been five years since I last tossed a jig into the icy waters of an 8" hole in the ice. Back in college, I'd fish with some friends at ISU and I always enjoyed the time on the hardwater. It made winter much more enjoyable and I always vowed to get back into it someday. Either I didn't have the gear, or I didn't have the time, but this year I made it happen. And I'm sure glad I did!

As if a switch were flipped, the fish began biting with reckless abandon. One after another, I reeled them in and it was 6pm before I ran out of bait. I ended the day with a few keeper bluegill.

Caught in the excitement, I lost all track of time. I knew I'd be in trouble since I had just called my girlfriend reporting no fish after 5 hours of trying. I told her I'd be home by 6.

She forgave me when I made her dinner -fresh fish!

Here's a breakdown of the weather factors and ice conditions on a few ponds in central Iowa:

Weather Thursday, Feb. 7th:
Overcast, Rainy, Windy
Temps Falling Through 30s
Low Barometer, Rising Tendency
Ice Conditions:
6" to 8" of ice, with top 1" rotten ice melted from rain
5" to 7" clear ice, pond edges thinning
Fish Caught:
6 Largemouth Bass, 24 Bluegill

Weather Friday, Feb. 8th:
Overcast, Light Wind, Snow Showers
Temps in 20s
High Barometer, Steady Tendency
Ice Conditons:
6" to 8" of ice, top 1" white ice refrozen from previous day's rain, very slick
5" to 7" of clear ice, pond edges thinning, especially near mouth of creek
Fish Caught:
10 Largemouth Bass, 2 White Crappie, 28 Bluegill

Ice Fishing Hanging on in Central Iowa

Ice fishing this time of year can be very hit or miss. Ice thicknesses are beginning to vary widely across the state as our spring-like sun is gaining intensity.

Image Courtesy MDNR

Although warm weather is approaching and ice may become dangerously thin, I expect ice thicker than 3" to hang on. Using a model I put together based on ice growth processes, it appears fishable ice may remain in central Iowa for at least two more weeks. With that said, dangerous ice conditions are likely to develop this weekend.

Average to above average temps in the forecast this week.

This year anglers have been blessed with more ice than last year (which isn't saying much) but temps in the 40s signal the end is near. Temps will continue to warm on average through the weekend and could stay above freezing deteriorating ice conditions through Valentine's day.

Ice growth chart courtesy fishingvermont.net

Ice growth and melting is a very complicated process. The biggest factors on ice growth are the average air temperature, the thickness of the ice, snow cover, water currents, sun intensity, fish schooling and waterfowl. In order to grow, ice has to use energy to freeze water into solid form. Initially, skim ice can freeze and grow very quickly. As the thickness increases it takes more energy to transfer the heat/cold through the system because some energy is lost along the way. The result is; the thicker the ice - the longer periods of cold are required to freeze the water below. Slower growing ice is often clear and very strong. Fast growing ice is full of trapped air bubbles which makes it weaker.

Ice growth chart
 courtesy http://lakeice.squarespace.com/ice-growth/

Snow cover can insulate the ice, protecting it from the harsh cold and preventing it from thickening. Water currents on rivers or convective currents in lakes can erode ice in localized spots resulting in potentially dangerous weak spots. Schools of fish and waterfowl can also "stir" up the water causing weak spots and maintaining open water.

Caught on Twelve Mile Lake 1-21-13. Thanks Cindy McNamara.

As the sun angle increases, and our sunshine becomes more intense, ice conditions will begin to be vary even more than they do now. South facing shorelines will heat up above and below the waterline. Humps and underwater reefs, trees and other shallow structure will begin to absorb sunlight and create daily weak currents of warmer water that will melt the ice from below. Eventually the ice will break apart and ice fishing season will be over.

The good news is, that may not happen until the end of the month here in central Iowa. I put together a crude, empirical model of ice growth and decay for central Iowa. If the forecast holds, we'll lose 1.5" to 3.5" of ice by Valentine's day. Dangerous ice conditions may develop between the 10th and 14th in southern and central Iowa where thickness may thin down to 3" or less.

Actual temps through Feb 5th, forecast temps after that.

After the 15th, an Arctic air mass will spill down from northern Canada and temps will chill into ice-making territory again. This could save the day for ice anglers in central Iowa by rebuilding some ice and prolonging the season another week.