Record Breakin' Weekend

Sizzlin' summer temperatures just a few shy of 90 on Sunday.

Well, the weekend is upon us and it's looking downright summer-like! Highs will jump into the 70s and 80s on Saturday, and mid to upper 80s on Sunday! What month is this again? That's nearly 30 degrees above the average temperature. Humidity will also increase, which will make it feel more like late June than the beginning of April.

They're firing up! This weekend will be a good one to get
out after these little morsels.

If you want to get some Morel mushrooms in March, I'd suggest going today or Saturday! Our rainfall came down on soil temps that are in the 50s for most of central Iowa. Moisture on warm ground and high humidity at night seem to really contribute to growing Morels. We've already seen preferential micro-climates popping off these little edibles. I think this weekend we will start seeing a wide-spread showing of all 3 main species of Morel (Whites, Commons, and Big Foots).

Rain amounts varied widely, but in general 1/4 to 3/4 fell with
Thursday's thunderstorms. Perfect for rejuvinating the fishing
activity.

The rainfall was substantial enough to kick up water levels in creeks and tributaries. This should serve to keep a light to moderate bite going Friday and Saturday despite high barometric pressure. Winds will kick up to the 15mph range from the SE on Saturday and the 30 mph wind speed range from the SW on Sunday.

Rain is a Good Thing

SW Iowa picked up pockets of moderate rainfall Thursday
morning with more rain expected state-wide Thursday evening.

Chances for rain in the forecast Thursday have got my hopes up for finding wide-spread Morels this weekend! The last few days we've had lows in the 40s and 50s and highs in the 70s and soil temps are primed for White Morels (Little Greys)! Areas, especially south of I-80, that see rainfall today and tonight could stand to see a good crop of Morels spring up in the next few days. Temps bounce back up into the 80s this weekend will be a good combination with the new rainfall.

More reports are coming in from outdoorsmen across Iowa, Nebraska and Missouri who are finding Morels. Whites and Yellows are the primary so far, but I suspect one or two spots will begin to show some of the Bigfoot Morels which are the largest species. This is especially true if you're lucky enough to see more than .5" of rain. Lilacs are in bloom in many spots as are the Violets suggesting the soil temps.

Large swings in the mercury will have fish and game shifting.
But above average temps, plus new rain and we should
 have Morels this weekend.

On a fishing note, this storm system has two chances to strike up some good fishing activity. The first will be with the pressure tendency. Barometric pressure will fall this afternoon at the same time we expect to see the evening activity pick up. We'll also have a broken line of storms and clouds ahead of the main system. These factors plus a moderate breeze should make this afternoon worth-while on the water. The second thing is locally heavy rains will contribute to slight water level rises, a subtle increase in river flow and this could carry a decent bite over into the weekend, despite high pressure nearby. And with summer-like temperatures, who wouldn't want to be outside!

In any event I'd check out your favorite spots for Morels and fish this weekend. I think it will be worth a look ;-) Good luck!

More Morel Adventures



Sunday's mushrooms. Not Morels :( But not bad for March 25th

 It has been truly remarkable to see the transition from winter brown to emerald green. In many locations, the forest more closely resembles mid-April rather than late March. And I'm happy to report, some lucky outdoorsmen are finding morels in central Iowa!

Unfortunately for me, I'm not one of 'em. Perhaps I'm looking in the wrong spots or maybe it's the fact that I only spent an hour or two on Sunday morning looking for "little greys" which are the hardest species to spot. Whatever the reason, my 'hotspots' let me down and I got skunked on my search. But signs were everywhere that they'll be firing up soon. Here's my thoughts about Sunday's excursion.

Blue Violets are an excellent sign the soil is close or suitable
for Morel mushrooms to fire up. In my locations the soil was
quite dry which make conditions harsh for morels.

For most areas, it's still a bit too early for widespread Morels. Pockets of forest terrain have suitable conditions right now, but the majority of the woods isn't quite ready yet. There was a very substantial difference in forest undergrowth from the north/east facing slopes to the south and west facing slopes... South slopes had thicker grasses, healthier ferns, and forest flowers meanwhile the north slopes are perhaps a week or two weeks behind.

Some of the most reliable indicators I've ever had for searching for Morels are subtle clues from the woods. I look for blue and yellow Violets, Dandelions and Creeping Charlies. I also look for knee high ferns and moss as good signs the forest is ready to produce Morels.

Rocky soils, steep cut banks near creeks and small pockets facing south or west will be the best bets this week. Our next best chance of rain is late in the week, which might make the upcoming weekend a great time to get out. I'm going to try to search again on Wednesday.

This year's conditions are circled. Most areas could use some
more rain to make the Mushroom hunting better.

I hate to say it, but conditions are a bit off again this year. If we can't get substantial moisture without cooling way down, we could be facing the 3rd bad year in a row for Morels.

The Mysterious Morel

Well, I went out for a nice hike in central Iowa on the first full day of Spring. It looked much more like the first day of Turkey season than March 21st. I even caught a hen turkey sitting on a nest while I stalked through the woods looking for sheds and the mysterious Morel.

The grass was surprisingly green as I left the truck and began my walk. Humidity was high, and just enough sunshine was getting through the clouds that I had to shed my jacket.

Robins, Cardinals and many other birds were enjoying the worm buffet from our recent rains. As I slogged through the mud, I was getting more and more excited to find the first tasty White Morels (Little Greys) of the season.

I was happy to see ferns coming up! Lichens and moss were also out in full force, and I found several spots where various cup fungi were feasting on dead bark from Elm trees. I have always seen these fungi when I find morels. But more often than not those cup fungi are a bit drier and not quite as fresh, something I never noticed until this year. A small thought popped into my head, "I probably wouldn't find any morels today."

So I sat down on a log and drank some ice water while I put the pieces together. Grass was greenest in open fields on ridge tops and south slopes and not very green under the trees. Open south slopes were also the only place I found Dandelions and they were the only flower on the forest floor.

Vegitation under the trees is still immature/emergant and I suspect the soil temp in the forest is substantially cooler than the open-field soil readings we can look up online. Normally when I find Morels, there are little blue flowers, Dandelions and taller ferns nearby. I didn't see any of that on my hike. I'm also concerned the rain isn't soaking in deep enough since we've only seen between .25" and .75" despite several days of rain.
I still expect very small pockets of cover to have Morels right now. More wide-spread Morels should pop in a few days to a week from now. I think the ground is still too cool and the warmth/moisture needs to sink in just a bit deeper. They're already being reported in Kansas City and northwestern Missori which is about a week ahead of us climate-wise. So bring on the sunshine, and let the outdoorsman's easter egg hunt begin!

Based on the forecast I think we are in great shape. Conditions will still be tough since the usual suspects like the White Morels usually fire first and they're small and hide really well under leaves. If you're not having much luck in your usual spots try focusing in on Micro-Climates. These are "pockets" of cover that heat up more than surrounding areas. I like south facing slopes and for whatever reason I often find my first Morels painfully close to the center of Multi-flora Rose bushes. I think these locations seem to "hold" the heat overnight when moisture is higher.

I love seeing the transformation from Winter as Iowa blossoms into Spring and I plan on going back out on Friday or Saturday. I hope you get out and enjoy it, and I'll keep you posted on what I find!

-Chris

Just Add Water!

It could be the record setting streak or the stretch of 80s six days strong. Or maybe it was the warmest rain we have had in March on record. Any which way you cut it, our unprecedented hot streak has launched Iowa on an unstoppable course into Spring!


On Wed. some folks hauled in a fewWalleye
with live minnows. I elected to jig and I
caught this Alabama rig.

  In between chasing the "eyes" and channel cats that are biting actively in the rivers, and being distracted by blooming plants and strutting Turkeys, I have started to focus on Morels. I kept track of some of last year's conditions when Morels fired up in my neck of the woods and I've got to tell you, the only thing separating last year's Morel makin' weather and this last week of weather is water.

Arguably two of the strongest contributors to Morel mushrooms are soil temperatures and moisture.




Soil temps have skyrocketed, but we've been way too dry.
That changes this week.

 

Check out this graph with last year's conditions right next to this year's (circled). I strongly believe 4" soil temps up around 50F and high soil moisture are the two main factors that fire up Morels. We have had a few bad years in a row, but the timing of this rain, and temps cooling into the low 70s, should hold that soil temperature in a favorable zone.  Now that we are adding moisture with plenty of chances for rain in the forecast, we'll have warm and humid nights and fresh rains soaking into our parched soil. 



Root zone soil moisture has been quite arid for 2/3 of the state.
An inch of moisture could potentially double the soil moisture
content. It could also fire up some morels, especially
in Southern Iowa.





Not only does this mean we are about to explode into a lush, green landscape by the end of the week. We could also be plucking Morels across Iowa. I know this is almost a full month ahead of schedule but I plan on looking this week, and I'll keep you posted. You can also track morel sightings with the links on the right.

Unprecedented Warm Stetch

Holy WARM! Is it really still just March?




We're in the midst of an unparalleled warm spell. Iowa is soaking up
the 'summer' sunshine while still technically in Winter. This kind of warmth has never been seen before,
and might never again.



Our amazing summer-like stretch comes on the heels of a warm non-winter where some folks in central Iowa didn't even fall below zero. It was hard to keep snow on the ground, and even harder to remember that white fluffy stuff called snow... even though we had some just 2 weeks ago. P.S. it's still "Winter" until March 20th. 

But this year is truly unprecedented. For the first time ever in Des Moines, we didn't hit zero on the thermometer.  Des Moines has now broken down 5 records in a row, with the 6th likely to fall as I type this. From the National Weather Service, out of 134 years of record keeping for central Iowa this is officially the warmest year to date on record. Ever!

Coming up, I'll be talking specifically about what effects this will have on the wildlife here in Iowa. One thing's for sure, this heat has shocked the ecosystems. I believe we are poised on the periphery of an emerald explosion of springtime flora, fauna and fungi. That's right, I'm forecasting Morel Mushrooms in Iowa, and I'm talking about it in my next blog.

Rising Temps, Falling Records



A warm airmass will move in for the next 2 weeks. Expect
record warmth and a rapid transition to spring!

 Several record high temperatures have already fallen this year, but several more are in jeopardy this week. The 7-Day forecast looks more like May than March as unprecidented warmth moves into the region! Highs will soar into the 70s and even 80s with the jet stream pushing well into Canada. And we'll be stuck in this exceptionally warm rut for at least a few weeks.



Soil temps are climbing rapidly. Morels could
pop 2-3 weeks earlier than you'd normally expect! They're
already being picked in southern Missouri. Follow with the
"Morel Sightings" link on the right.



The big questions are, what does this mean for fishing and morels? Four inch soil temperatures started the week in the low 40s putting morel mushroom hunters on standby with this record warm pattern! If this abnormal heat continues, our season will likely come much earlier than normal. See post on "Forecasting Morels" for more on favorable soil temps and moisture. One huge detractor is the lack of soil moisture, but that wont stop the grass from turning from brown to green this week!



Wildlife is in for a wild ride. Spring is almost a month early
this year!



Fishermen will be dusting off the gear to enjoy the benefits of warming water. Water temps change much more slowly than land or air temps. With cool nights offsetting the warm days, the average daily temperature becomes more important than the highs. Lately the average daily temperature in Des Moines has only been 43F, just a few degrees above the water temperature. This has caused the water to warm very little. This week's forecast has projected average temperature will be in the low 60s! 

This isn't your typical spring warm-up, this will be a stunning pattern change, and it will strengthen fishing action! The water is still cold, so keep that in mind. The fairly repetitive nature to the forecast also means, when you find a good pattern, stick with it! Fishing activity will likely get better and patterns will become predictable by the end of the week.

New Daily Fishing Weather Index

Extensive clouds on the satellite is
a good weather factor for fishing.

Check out this satellite picture of a well-defined storm system  with extensive cloud cover (white) spinning over Iowa Monday morning.

I use this Cloud Cover Forecast model to help predict cloud cover. I'll link this along with a satellite link under my favorites since these are handy to know, especially for fishing.

Experienced fishermen know weather often has a direct and sometimes dramatic impact on fish activity levels. Something as simple as cloud-cover can increase the fishing activity as lower light levels usually leave bait fish more vulnerable to attack. Low barometric pressure also tends to increase fishing activity, especially when the pressure tendency is falling. Sharp cold fronts, cold weather, high pressure and heavy winds and storms can bring the fishing activity to a grinding halt.

Caught hours before a cold front.

The day's fishing activity is a matter of balancing the factors. For example a few summers ago I went fishing as a strong cold front approached. The clouds thickened, the barometric pressure was low and falling, the wind picked up to a steady 15mph and rain fell lightly for 2 hours before the front. The fishing bite was extremely good due to a great combination of factors. After the front passed, the temperature plummeted, the winds were strong at 25 to 30 with white-caps on the water, the barometric pressure rose suddenly and the fishing activity stopped as heavy precip hit. Fish's responses to enviromental factors are complicated, but somewhat predictable. Overall, the fishing was moderate to good, but poor after the front moved in.

By considering these and other factors in my daily forecasting I will start sharing the daily Fishing Weather Index for central Iowa. I'll briefly discuss what major factors lead to that rating in the caption below the picture.

Today's index is 5. If you have any questions, comments or concerns please let me know! By paying attention to the forecast and the subtle weather changes I know we can have good luck fishing. I have learned many valuable lessons over the years and I expect to learn many more. I'll be sharing these throughout the season.

Good luck, and enjoy this beautiful week!

Solar Storm Winding Down

Jason Arnold braved the cold to snap this gorgeous picture
above a sleepy Alaska town on March 9th.

The latest solar storm has been in the news lately, and even though space weather is not my expertise, I thought I'd talk about it. When this storm peaked, charged particles from the Sun knocked down radio signals, re-routed polar jet flights and created brilliant displays of Aurora Borealis like this seen in Alaska on March 8/9th.

It is pretty interesting what effects solar flares can have on the Earth's outer atmosphere and  magnetic fields. With this latest storm, all the talk about radio blackouts, power grids failing, and gps systems going bazerk was blown out of proportion. But it can and does happen with strong solar storms. Check out this K-Index which is a monitor of the solar activity levels and geo-magnetic disruption. Notice when (K) values were higher, Aurora were very visible. Areas as far south as La Crosse, WI could see the Northern Lights.

Northern Lights. Photo Courtesy Jason Arnold.

I'll link the K-Index in my favorites on the right along with this Northern Lights Forecast Model . We can use these to see if the Northern Lights will get close to Iowa sometime soon. The latest outlook suggests that a moderate to strong geomagnetic storm is possible late tonight (10th) and early on the (11th) so it might be possible to see the Aurora in the lower 48 from Michigan to Wisconsin, Minnesota and even northern Iowa.

The chances of seeing the Aurora in central Iowa are less than 5% but at least there's a chance.

First Fishing Outing of the Season

Tuesday March 6th, Des Moines tied the record high of 74 F as spring surged into the Plains states! This is the 5th time we've set or tied a record so far this year! The sunshine and warm weather proved too tempting for me to pass up and by mid-afternoon I was loading up the boat and heading for the river.

So good to be on the water! To my
pleasant surprise, I had no major
mechanical malfunctions either!

Cirrostratus (high thin clouds made of ice crystals) was filtering the sunlight and the wind was strong enough to put some whitecaps on the cold water, but that didn't stop our enthusiasm any. I noticed several other fishermen on the river alongside walkers and bikers using the nature trails and enjoying the day.

My fish finder got a lot of hits with suspended fish just a foot or two below the surface. Most of the activity was on the edge of drop offs and near cut banks where the channel deepened substantially from the flats right before the river bend. Closer to sunset the activity was moving into the flats and most of the fish on the sonar were in less than 4 feet of water.

Cirrostratus in the western sky often foreshadows
 a storm's approach. Usually increased fishing activity
accompanies these conditions.

I was out for a few hours but didn't catch anything besides a winter-kill gizzard shad that happened to float by the boat. With the upcoming forecast I will be heading out to try again very soon. Here's some of my trip's hits and misses:

Hits: Sudden Warm-up. Water changes temp much slower than air, but a few more days in the 50s and 60s and that water temp will be inching higher. Fish are cold-blooded so warmer water = higher activity = more feeding = I really should have caught something.

Low Pressure: The barometric pressure was falling which often triggers a stronger bite as fish feed on the warm side of low pressure, falling more dormant as barometric pressure rises after the storm.

Misses: The wind! It was strong enough to cause issues with boat positioning. No sooner did I bait the lines and the anchor would loosen with the current and wind. Cold water fish are finicky and precise boat positioning is a make or break deal. I couldn't stay in position long enough for proper bait presentation.

Cold water. Water temps were in the 30s and the water flow on the Des Moines (like most rivers in Iowa right now) was low and slow. Snow melt has been a non-factor so we'll need one or two warm spring rains to greatly improve the fishing activity.