Long-range forecasts are like most long range shots. The further out you aim, the harder it becomes to hit your target and the same thing happens to our forecasts. For example, the same Jet Stream energy that is traversing the US now will create a blizzard later this Winter. It's true. It will circle the Northern Hemisphere 5-10 times before then, interacting with oceans, mountains, deserts, etc... picking up traits from each of these varied environments and evolving each time. That makes it nearly impossible to predict. With that said, let's look at the next week or two.
Pictured here is the 6-10 Day Temperature Probability from the Climate Prediction Center. This forecast is generated by blending together different computer model projections into sort of a climate model smoothie. The idea is, if one model is out of whack one way, and a different model is outta whack the other way, the average of all the models is relatively close to reality. Iowa is in the 50% chance of Above Normal temperatures in the next 6-10 days. Just check out the summer-like 7-Day 10 to 20 degrees above average almost every day!
We're all operating on a time budget in the Fall. For hunters, knowing the long-term pattern will help you decide where and how to devote your hunting time and resources. In my next blog I'll focus on that and I'll break down the weather pattern for the next three months for all outdoors enthusiasts. In the meantime, expect to enjoy cool, comfortable nights, warm days and perfect evenings for the next several days.
No comments:
Post a Comment