The Wild Ride Continues

Our temperature pendulum keeps on swinging as central Iowa goes from 50s and 60s this weekend, to possibly 70s for the first half of the upcoming week. Then colder winds and rain will send the thermometer plummeting into the 40s mid-week.

These swings can play havoc with deer activity, especially when the surface barometric pressure is swinging wildly as well. Generally cold weather and high pressure is one of the best combinations to hunt, but a strong low pressure can also foster a spike in deer activity even if it's warm especially if light rain or snow accompanies that low. This happens often when a cold front moves through, and often the inclimate weather seems to remind the game animals to stock up on food before the storm.

Latest Winter Outlook from NOAA

At some point late in fall or early in winter (probably December), we'll transition to an active but cooler pattern. Here is the latest winter outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Regardless of the weather deer activity is picking up as the rut approaches, so get out in the woods if you have the chance. The next three weeks could be the best time to bag a big one. In my next blog I'll talk about the activity I've been seeing and where that places us in the rut phases.

Keep Your Cool for Warm Weather Whitetail

70's are great to enjoy with a cold one and the grill going, but often not very productive for hunting big game in Iowa. Warm temperatures often bring daylight deer movement to a screeching halt, especially in areas where human activity and pressure is present. Think 'cool' and hunt the microclimates to increase your odds of success.



Small changes in topography can create big changes in temperature

The sun angle keeps getting lower, and the nights are getting cooler and longer. This leads to some very interesting micro-climates that could make the difference between seeing nothing and sneaking up on a trophy. A micro-climate is a dramatically different set of weather conditions in a relatively small area usually caused by the terrain shape and vegetation. An example on a warm, sunny day would be the south facing slopes of a hill vs. the north facing slope. The side facing the sun could be in the 80s, while the opposite slope could still be hanging on to the morning cool and only in the 50s. Don't believe me? Take your thermometer off the garage and with you the next time you hunt on a sunny day. Set it up on the side of the tree facing the sun and leave it for 20 minutes. Then hang it on the shady side of the tree and once again leave it for 20 minutes. There's going to be a big difference in temperature, perhaps as much as 40 or 50 degrees! Animals that wear a heavy winter coat all year round know about these variations very well, and on hot days they'll focus on deep valleys and north facing hillsides. If you can throw in some cedar trees or a thick canopy of forest vegetation, plus some nearby water to drink -the deer will be there! You should be too.

The good news is, the warm weather wont last too long. We are in a very active pattern, with the thermometer swinging wildly from hot to cold and back again. Each wave of either extreme is only going to last 2-4 days before the pendulum swings back again. My long-range forecast (found below in "Wild Ride for Fall") calls for more of the same -dynamic swings that will keep both hunters and game on their toes (or hooves). So don't use the heat as an excuse not to get out and enjoy this fantastic weather hunting. Just change your strategy a bit. It wont be long before wind chills and freezing rain give us an even better reason to stay in the comfort of the living room!

Feeding Pattern to Pre-Rut Behavior

We’ve got a pretty good recipe for above average game movement the next few days. A few weeks ago we were in the 80s and this snap of chilly weather will have our heaters crankin' and the deer on the hoof during the daylight. Add to that, the harvest continues. With over 50% of the corn out, and over 90% of the beans gone -each day uncovers more deer habitat. It pushes deer around and tends to confine them into the timber.  Finally, just one month from now will be the start of peak breeding, the greatest contest a buck might play in his whole life, and they are practicing for it now. Most professional hunters and deer biologists agree this is determined by the moon. The moon is in its last quarter phase, growing dimmer with each passing day. Moonrise will be after midnight for the rest of the week, and many of us will notice this crescent settling in the western sky mid-afternoon. So it looks like another pretty good combination to hunt the end of the week. Below normal temperatures, an arctic high pressure and the proximity to rut signaled by the moon should all combine to have the deer transitioning between an active feeding pattern and a pre-rut pattern.

Expect to see sporadic sparring matches, scrapes and rubs in the woods this week. So stay mobile. If you encounter a good scrape line with several in a row – hunt it! The deer have a plethora of food options from the falling acorns to the newly cut corn fields, so it’s important to isolate which areas they prefer this week, because it will be constantly changing. I call it interactive scouting (a crossover between truly still-hunting and scouting and it really pays off. Good Luck!

Hunt the Harvest

This weather is really making it hard to come to work! The grey sky look we’ve started the week with, and the chilly conditions make excellent weather to hunt in –if you’re lucky enough! Colder weather has deer shifting their food preferences around. Similar to how people suddenly prefer soups and chili once the mercury drops, those same alfalfa fields sizeable herds were grazing in are now secondary to adjacent row crops, especially carbohydrate-rich corn. But standing corn can be very tough to hunt sometimes. So I thought I’d take a look at the latest harvest reports to check in with our progress.

According to the Iowa Corn Growers Association, “Dry and windy weather last week accelerated crop dry down and provided the opportunity to harvest nearly half of Iowa’s soybean acres.  The moisture content of the corn left to harvest throughout the state fell 4% from previous week to an average of 20%, with the corn currently being harvested running 18% moisture content. 10% of the corn crop is experiencing moderate to heavy ear droppage compared to 5% normally. Almost 50% of Iowa’s soybean crop was harvested last week, with soybean harvest jumping to 70% complete, still behind last year’s 74% but 5 days ahead of the average pace."  Source: IDALS Press Release, October 11, 2011.

As of today, 45% of corn is harvested and 87% of soy beans are out. Farmers are focusing on the soy bean fields right now to try and finish the harvest with the right moisture content in the seeds. So be patient if you’re hunting setup overlooks a corn field, it might be a few weeks. Perhaps switch your setup to a fresh-picked bean field as the deer rush out to snag the easy snacks left behind by the harvest. But leave that stand on the cornfield edge, because the latest crop report suggests you’re sitting on a corn-kernel gold mine! This year’s weather conditions appear to have caused twice as much ear droppage. This corn that falls off the stalks and onto the Iowa dirt typically are not harvested -bad news for farmers, but great news for hunters. Cornfields should become an excellent, reliable food source as the season wears on.

To be successful, be observant and adaptable like the quarry we’re chasing. Good luck out there, and if you’d like to keep tabs on the Iowa crop harvest click here.

Great Combination, Good Timing, Happy Hunting

While the recent temperatures have been enjoyable, I am excited for some real Fall weather! A week and a half of highs 10-20 degrees above average dropped the animal activity down quite a bit. But that will be changing in a big way the next few days! Here's the setup:

A large disorganized storm system will push a cold front through, so cooler temperatures will be moving into the area. This storm will strengthen to our east as a large Pacific High Pressure moves in. The two systems pushing each other around will create strong winds from the northwest Thursday and even Friday. These winds will signal big weather changes to the animals, and the cool breeze will combine with high pressure which should have big deer on the hoof during the daylight for the first time in weeks.

This setup is pretty favorable for seeing increased activity in the stand, but lets sweeten the pot. Consider too the moon phase is just past full. (Track this with my link to the right). The end of this week the moonrise for central Iowa is during the middle of the night, and the bright moon is hanging overhead through the first half of the morning. From my notes, this is often a favorable moon phase for lengthy morning activity and good hunts. All of these factors are timing out for the end of this week and the first half of the weekend. Bucks will be testing each other's boundaries and sizing up the competition for the breeding season and my forecast is they're going to pretty active the end of this week. I think I'll clear my schedule for some stand time!

Here's the theory in review:

Warm Lazy Pattern Broken + Cooler Temps + High Pressure + Last Bright Moon Before Full Moon During Rut = Happy Hunting!

I think you should test this one out. Good Luck!

Go Green for Warm Weather Deer

The harvest is well under way, but these temperatures are more August-like than October! Not to mention the dry south winds have really been blowing over 30mph the past few days! Although warm conditions are relatively enjoyable to hunt in, they can cause some serious problems for your typical hunting approach. Here are some tactics I use to beat the heat for early season Whitetail.

Set up your tree stands and ambush sites for the two dominant wind directions in the early Fall. Southeasterly winds (coming from the south or south east) will often come before our low pressures and foul weather. Hunters should have a few stands set up for this wind direction since this is our average wind for about 1/3 of October. Westerly to northwesterly winds will blow in behind storms as High Pressure moves in and this is the predominant wind direction in Fall here in the Central Plains. It is also the most likely wind to go along with cold weather!

During dry seasons, position stands directly over or within 30 yards of a game trail intersection with a creek. With above normal temperatures, action can be slow, but animals still have to drink. Generally hot conditions come with southerly winds, so I'll set up my stands to the north of these intersections. Lately, the majority of the deer I have seen have been feeding in green alfalfa fields. I have also noticed quite a few along strips of green pasture or grasslands. These are preferred feeding sites for early season deer as the beans and corn turn brown. Plants that are still green are desirable and contain water which is essential in hot, dry weather. So stick close to water and go green for warm weather Whitetail.

Good luck!  

Wild Ride This Fall

Lately, I've heard one common question from folks: "Why the heck is it so warm?"

Check out this animation . It shows the Northern Hemisphere looking down at the North Pole. If your geography is a bit rusty, no worries. North America is at the bottom of the circle and Iowa is pretty much in the middle. Notice the growing blue blob on the lower left of the image. Over the last month two enormous and persistent areas of cool, stormy weather are setting up. One is to the west, and the other to the east. We will be sandwiched somewhere in-between. Anytime this happens, it usually spells warmth for the heartland. In fact, you can expect hot/above average conditions for about 2/3 of your outdoors adventures this October.

You can also expect wild swings this Fall! Pictured to the left is a three month forecast from the Climate Prediction Center with my forecast overlayed. It looks like we'll see above average temps and generally dry/sunny conditions the majority of the Fall season with periodic cold spells in-between.  But  we're losing three minutes of daylight with each passing day, and the sun angle is getting lower- so winter will come. The cold spells will come in surges that will last several days a piece. Because most of the storms will be coming from the NW, rain and clouds will be limited. With sunshine, the cold will generally lose it's grip within a week. This warm/dry pattern will spell comfortable conditions for us to enjoy this fall. Heck, maybe even a lower energy bill!

When the weather's like this, deer still move around. Later this week I'll blog about the specific strategies I use for hunting a warm weather pattern. They are simple and very effective so keep checking in and tell a friend about this blog. Send me a message if you want me to talk about a specific topic, or have a weather question. I'll be happy to accommodate. Good luck out there!

Warm Week Ahead!

Opening weekend is under our belts, so let's shift focus to the long-range pattern.

Long-range forecasts are like most long range shots. The further out you aim, the harder it becomes to hit your target and the same thing happens to our forecasts. For example, the same Jet Stream energy that is traversing the US now will create a blizzard later this Winter. It's true. It will circle the Northern Hemisphere 5-10 times before then, interacting with oceans, mountains, deserts, etc... picking up traits from each of these varied environments and evolving each time. That makes it nearly impossible to predict. With that said, let's look at the next week or two.

Pictured here is the 6-10 Day Temperature Probability from the Climate Prediction Center. This forecast is generated by blending together different computer model projections into sort of a climate model smoothie. The idea is, if one model is out of whack one way, and a different model is outta whack the other way, the average of all the models is relatively close to reality. Iowa is in the 50% chance of Above Normal temperatures in the next 6-10 days. Just check out the summer-like 7-Day 10 to 20 degrees above average almost every day! 

We're all operating on a time budget in the Fall. For hunters, knowing the long-term pattern will help you decide where and how to devote your hunting time and resources. In my next blog I'll focus on that and I'll break down the weather pattern for the next three months for all outdoors enthusiasts. In the meantime, expect to enjoy cool, comfortable nights, warm days and perfect evenings for the next several days.