Great Combination, Good Timing, Happy Hunting

While the recent temperatures have been enjoyable, I am excited for some real Fall weather! A week and a half of highs 10-20 degrees above average dropped the animal activity down quite a bit. But that will be changing in a big way the next few days! Here's the setup:

A large disorganized storm system will push a cold front through, so cooler temperatures will be moving into the area. This storm will strengthen to our east as a large Pacific High Pressure moves in. The two systems pushing each other around will create strong winds from the northwest Thursday and even Friday. These winds will signal big weather changes to the animals, and the cool breeze will combine with high pressure which should have big deer on the hoof during the daylight for the first time in weeks.

This setup is pretty favorable for seeing increased activity in the stand, but lets sweeten the pot. Consider too the moon phase is just past full. (Track this with my link to the right). The end of this week the moonrise for central Iowa is during the middle of the night, and the bright moon is hanging overhead through the first half of the morning. From my notes, this is often a favorable moon phase for lengthy morning activity and good hunts. All of these factors are timing out for the end of this week and the first half of the weekend. Bucks will be testing each other's boundaries and sizing up the competition for the breeding season and my forecast is they're going to pretty active the end of this week. I think I'll clear my schedule for some stand time!

Here's the theory in review:

Warm Lazy Pattern Broken + Cooler Temps + High Pressure + Last Bright Moon Before Full Moon During Rut = Happy Hunting!

I think you should test this one out. Good Luck!

Go Green for Warm Weather Deer

The harvest is well under way, but these temperatures are more August-like than October! Not to mention the dry south winds have really been blowing over 30mph the past few days! Although warm conditions are relatively enjoyable to hunt in, they can cause some serious problems for your typical hunting approach. Here are some tactics I use to beat the heat for early season Whitetail.

Set up your tree stands and ambush sites for the two dominant wind directions in the early Fall. Southeasterly winds (coming from the south or south east) will often come before our low pressures and foul weather. Hunters should have a few stands set up for this wind direction since this is our average wind for about 1/3 of October. Westerly to northwesterly winds will blow in behind storms as High Pressure moves in and this is the predominant wind direction in Fall here in the Central Plains. It is also the most likely wind to go along with cold weather!

During dry seasons, position stands directly over or within 30 yards of a game trail intersection with a creek. With above normal temperatures, action can be slow, but animals still have to drink. Generally hot conditions come with southerly winds, so I'll set up my stands to the north of these intersections. Lately, the majority of the deer I have seen have been feeding in green alfalfa fields. I have also noticed quite a few along strips of green pasture or grasslands. These are preferred feeding sites for early season deer as the beans and corn turn brown. Plants that are still green are desirable and contain water which is essential in hot, dry weather. So stick close to water and go green for warm weather Whitetail.

Good luck!  

Wild Ride This Fall

Lately, I've heard one common question from folks: "Why the heck is it so warm?"

Check out this animation . It shows the Northern Hemisphere looking down at the North Pole. If your geography is a bit rusty, no worries. North America is at the bottom of the circle and Iowa is pretty much in the middle. Notice the growing blue blob on the lower left of the image. Over the last month two enormous and persistent areas of cool, stormy weather are setting up. One is to the west, and the other to the east. We will be sandwiched somewhere in-between. Anytime this happens, it usually spells warmth for the heartland. In fact, you can expect hot/above average conditions for about 2/3 of your outdoors adventures this October.

You can also expect wild swings this Fall! Pictured to the left is a three month forecast from the Climate Prediction Center with my forecast overlayed. It looks like we'll see above average temps and generally dry/sunny conditions the majority of the Fall season with periodic cold spells in-between.  But  we're losing three minutes of daylight with each passing day, and the sun angle is getting lower- so winter will come. The cold spells will come in surges that will last several days a piece. Because most of the storms will be coming from the NW, rain and clouds will be limited. With sunshine, the cold will generally lose it's grip within a week. This warm/dry pattern will spell comfortable conditions for us to enjoy this fall. Heck, maybe even a lower energy bill!

When the weather's like this, deer still move around. Later this week I'll blog about the specific strategies I use for hunting a warm weather pattern. They are simple and very effective so keep checking in and tell a friend about this blog. Send me a message if you want me to talk about a specific topic, or have a weather question. I'll be happy to accommodate. Good luck out there!

Warm Week Ahead!

Opening weekend is under our belts, so let's shift focus to the long-range pattern.

Long-range forecasts are like most long range shots. The further out you aim, the harder it becomes to hit your target and the same thing happens to our forecasts. For example, the same Jet Stream energy that is traversing the US now will create a blizzard later this Winter. It's true. It will circle the Northern Hemisphere 5-10 times before then, interacting with oceans, mountains, deserts, etc... picking up traits from each of these varied environments and evolving each time. That makes it nearly impossible to predict. With that said, let's look at the next week or two.

Pictured here is the 6-10 Day Temperature Probability from the Climate Prediction Center. This forecast is generated by blending together different computer model projections into sort of a climate model smoothie. The idea is, if one model is out of whack one way, and a different model is outta whack the other way, the average of all the models is relatively close to reality. Iowa is in the 50% chance of Above Normal temperatures in the next 6-10 days. Just check out the summer-like 7-Day 10 to 20 degrees above average almost every day! 

We're all operating on a time budget in the Fall. For hunters, knowing the long-term pattern will help you decide where and how to devote your hunting time and resources. In my next blog I'll focus on that and I'll break down the weather pattern for the next three months for all outdoors enthusiasts. In the meantime, expect to enjoy cool, comfortable nights, warm days and perfect evenings for the next several days.