Last Chance Forecast

Thanksgiving weekend is traditionally a great weekend for hunting in Iowa, and the weather will cooperate! It is also the perfect time to pause and give thanks for all the gifts we have been given.

I am most thankful for my family and the opportunity to hunt such a great place like Iowa. I am also very thankful for the time hunting has given me to grow closer to our loved ones.

Spending time afield with my girlfriend Heather has been the highlight for me this season. And after two years with a stick and string in hand, I was delighted to be there as she flung a few arrows at some big Iowa Whitetail. I'm also grateful to have gone hunting with good friends and a couple of great new bow hunters.

Between this season's wild weather and the fast pace of life -shooting a nice buck hasn't been in the cards for me and a lot of Iowa sportsmen. In a few short days, Iowans will trade in the bow for some blaze orange and hunters will take after the herd with shotguns. The traditional gun season often significantly alters deer patterns which means the time is now to go afield, bow in hand, and seek out success afield. That shot at an archery buck will soon be out of range.

The good news is, we have an active forecast and weather conditions will give archers an edge on the eve of shotgun season. Fluctuations in the barometer combined with mild temps and then a big storm moving in next week will make hunting conditions fair to good most of the time. I think the best days for hunting will be Sunday, Monday, Wednesday and Thursday.

So don't give up just yet! This storm moving in will at least give us a fighting chance for our last chance buck. True there is a late split for Iowa archers beginning December 23rd, but at that point in the season deer are spooky, the weather's challenging at best. Often a bow hunter's percentage for success and willful hunting spirit drops right alongside that thermometer.

Arctic Cold Sets Hunting on Fire

A wintry blast has blanketed central Iowa with a light icing and around 1" of snow, transforming Fall into Winter.

Just the right amount of snow for tracking, but not getting stuck.
This blanket of white will last in many spots until Monday afternoon.

Now bone-chilling temperatures under Arctic high pressure will collide with the prime time rut and hunters will want a front row seat to one of the best hunting weekends we'll see this season.

Rutting activity will be peaking by Nov. 24th
 and sharply falling off into Post-Rut after that.

Nearly one week after the rutting full moon, this perfect storm of conditions should really fire up the already promising deer activity. We are nearing peak breeding in the Whitetail herd and many locations will begin experiencing the "rut" where daylight deer movement dramatically reduces. Until then, the bucks are moving at full throttle and this cold weather aims to push it over the edge combining feeding activity with breeding activity.

Transformed to Winter overnight.

Snow is also a huge plus! A disgustingly delightful crust of ice and snow will now reveal deer once hidden from view and betray their movements with loud crunching. Snow cover is also extremely helpful in tracking size, sex, numbers and direction of deer movement in your area. In stark contrast to last weekend's 60s/70s in the state, recent snowfall will make this weekend seem like an entirely different world in the deer woods.

Bundle up Hawk Fans. The wind chill factor will be 0 to -10F at kickoff.
Cyclones get a break from the wind, but not the cold.

Rut activity is still high and bucks are chasing does in central Iowa. In the sleet and freezing rain I successfully rattled in two nice bucks and watched a third chase does, mouth agape, and constantly grunting.

 Arctic air will challenge your gear and force the game to feed. Crunchy snow may make that deep-woods stalk nearly impossible, but bitter-cold will make that food-source ambush a hit.

Deer hunters wont be the only ones with success this weekend. Migrating waterfowl will be hitching a ride on the strong northerly early on Saturday. Winds will relax for Saturday night and Sunday morning. Pheasant hunting Sunday morning may be about the coldest walk you'll have this season, but the frost and light wind should hold the birds and their scent well.

My favorite weather days to deer hunt this week would be Friday afternoon,
Saturday afternoon, Sunday morning, Monday morning and Thanksgiving morning.

Although most of us don't like to lose feeling in the fingertips, a heavy-horned buck chasing a doe toward your stand or that flush of a rooster tails exploding from the grass in front of you seems to have a way of making it feel warmer outside.

It looks darn cold this weekend -certainly the coldest we've seen this season. And we may even have to dress like Ralphie and Randy from A Christmas Story to survive it, but I expect this weekend's hunting weather to be great. So layer up, lace on the tundra-boots, and good luck!

Mild but Wild Hunting Weekend

The deer activity continues to ramp up as we approach peak rut here in Iowa. Here's 4 reasons why you need to be on stand this weekend!

Nose to the grindstone! This buck's smelling the path of a nearby doe. May I introduce you to my girlfriend's arrow?

Reason number one, IT'S THE RUT. It's like deer hunting Christmas out there! You never know when that buck you've been after or his bigger brother you've never seen before will come strolling on by. Plan on planting your butt in that stand as long as you can and patience may help you wrap your hands around the gift of big antlers.

This buck traveling in the snowy aftermath of last year's blizzard.

The rut is close to peaking. The rutting full moon will rise on Sunday evening. While that bright ball in the night sky may keep 'em bedded until late, it signifies that the time for the herd to breed is now. Does are coming into estrous all over the place and bucks will be moving to find them. The seeking phase has been transitioning to the chase phase and we are fast approaching lock-down. Last weekend, rut activity in my neck of the woods was tame but a buddy of mine a few stands over reported seeing dozens of deer. Does pursued by bucks with their nose down. So far I've only encountered young bucks on the move, but many hunters are tagging out with big boys and the time is near.

The barometer will fall through Saturday before bottoming out in the evening. Temps will rise until the storm passes. As the barometer rises and the low pulls away, cold air will fill in behind -pushed in by high pressure and a gusty, cold wind.

A storm is moving in! Although it aims to bring unseasonably warm temps, it will bring a boat-load of clouds from Gulf-of-Mexico moisture steaming northward. Cloudy warm is much better than sunny warm as the "apparent" temp will remain close to the actual temps. In theory it wont "feel" too warm. Saturday morning may be best weather for hunting as the barometer falls, foggy/cloudy/drizzly conditions form and temps remain below 55. You wont be the only thing sneaking around in the damp leaves -big bucks seem to prefer the foul weather of an approaching storm. The last storm like this was on Nov. 5th and I had several shooter bucks pop up on trail camera in the soaking rain and "warm" temps.

I'm hoping November 17th will be lucky for me again this year!

This storm will cause the barometer to rise sharply as the temps fall during the afternoon on Sunday. The cooler conditions should keep the bucks moving and may urge the herd into the fields to pack on the calories. A few bucks will duck the wind and head for thick north-south oriented valleys to bed. Still hunting these sly giants doesn't get much better when the wind's whipping and that ground is damp.

Fog, drizzle, mist, heavy clouds and warming temps are likely to make Saturday morning the best one to hunt!

Finally, temps will be comfortable! It's not often we can enjoy 60s on stand in November. Even if we don't see much, I think Heather would prefer the warm scenario vs. freezing temps and plenty of deer. Hopefully, we can get her on her first archery deer. Here's a look at the temp forecast from one of our computer models. Although warm and windy for the most-part, these #s will be accompanied by clouds. I am optimistic that Rut dynamics and the low barometric pressure will combine with clouds to make hunting this weekend one of the best this season.

Model temps Saturday evening. It may be even warmer than these computer estimates.

Sunday morning a sharp front will divide the state from winter-like in the NW, to Spring-like in the SE.

Sunday evening a strong WNW wind will whip in cooler temps.

So make no excuses, and find a way to hunt November 16th & 17th. While you're waiting for a biggun, here's a few articles you might find interesting.
Field and Stream buck rescue

Field and Steam Rut behavior 
p.s. Happy birthday to blog readers Kevin and Jason. You guys are awesome, hope to hunt with you again soon!

Arctic Blast to Fire Up The Rut!

Quiet timber exploded into thunderous clatter of leaves crushing and branches breaking.

Between Nov. 8th and Nov. 17th expect some great rut hunting action.

Two does ran by so fast there wasn't even time to stand up before they had passed. Moments later the leaves betrayed a wide 8 point buck following nose to the ground. Shortly before noon on a cold mid-November day the arrow hit its mark and a lucky hunter's quest for an archery buck was over.




Scenes like this will be playing out all over the Midwest this weekend as the Whitetail rut ramps up. Seeking and chasing is becoming more prevalent during the daylight. Giant bucks are standing proud in open fields guarding does that are nearly ready to breed.

This buck took advantage of the soaking storm November 5th and freshened
a scrape on his mid-afternoon stroll.

In Iowa scrapes and rubs are furiously scratched every minute around the clock as bucks cruise the loop looking for their next girlfriend. Now is the time to be on stand and the action will get even hotter with a huge cool-down slated for the middle of the month.

In November, there's two types of predominate wind; warm and cold. The prevailing warm wind is a due southerly and the corresponding cold wind is a northwesterly.  Set your stands for these for success in November.

Temperature is second only to human pressure on reducing daylight rut behavior for a deer herd. Warm readings typically keeps the herd bedded down until it cools off at night and much of the activity becomes nocturnal. Human pressure is the premier rut inhibitor and can dramatically reduce the predictability of the herd your hunting. Other factors that influence the amount of rut activity you'll see are buck to do ratios and land use practices. Habitat that doesn't promote sanctuary may only see sporadic activity at best.

Arctic cold may drop single digits into the Midwest Tue/Wed. Yowzaa.

Veteran's Day 2013 through November 13th will feature a polar plunge as Arctic high pressure builds into the central Plains. In just over 24 hours the temperatures will drop 30-40 degrees sending the Iowa outdoors into winter mode and sending the Rut into overdrive. Modifying temps may limit activity somewhat heading into the weekend of the 16th/17th but yet another temperature cliff may be on the horizon ready to spark more great rut hunting weather.

Get out and enjoy this weekend, it will be warm but activity will be up from last weekend and it shouldn't disappoint!

Sweet November

Hunters, welcome to sweet November!

Beautiful Iowa buck on a nice November cruise for does.

This is the month where the Iowa Whitetail Rut offers hunters the best deer hunting for the entire year. It's time to start clearing the calendar for some stand time! But the big question is when? When will the deer woods explode into a parade of thick necks and giant antlers? Oh, how I do like to predict things... and like it or leave it, I'm going to use the bottom pin and take a long shot to forecast the rut activity for central Iowa! Here is my rut prediction for 2013.

I always hear, "no one but the deer truly knows the answer, and it varies from farm to farm across the state." Although that's true to an extent, I think we can use science and our own hunting experience to get an edge on this year's rut. Just like our spring warmth that waited until June, the summer heat that blasted into September and our Autumn colors which are a full two weeks behind last years pace -I'll bet this year's rut will likely be a bit "late."

Vibrant colors are clinging late into the 2013 fall season.

The rut gets its name from the fact that there is a distinct period of time during breeding where deer seem to disappear. This "rut" in deer activity can be one of the toughest times to be a stand hunter, made even worse by the frenzied pace of deer activity chasing just a few days prior. The rut can be broken down to distinct phases; pre-rut, seeking, chase, breeding and post rut. Each phase has consistent and predictable behavior, but that behavior is influenced by a multitude of factors such as human pressure, temperature, barometric pressure and moon phase.

Under cold temps, a dark moon and the bright midday sun,
this buck's looking for a date.

I have been following the work of Charles Alzheimer a renowned Whitetail photographer and deer expert for many years. He has some theories on the timing of the rut and each year I put these to the test in my neck of the woods. So far, they've proven pretty consistent and I've been able to track each phase as it transitions into the next.

It begins with the early fall pattern merging with pre-rut. Pre-rut is where the bucks begin making scrapes, rubs and start sparring. This stage begins roughly 1-2 moths before the rutting full moon. They're sizing up the competition and practicing for the big game. Pre-rut then merges with the seeking phase about one week prior to the rutting full moon. Does are getting close, but they're not ready to breed. Bucks begin seeking out which does are closest to ready, traveling longer distances and during daylight hours. Establishing territory, gangs of bucks vandalize trees, fight with other bucks and send scrapes like love notes to their future does. The seeking phase is one of the best times to hunt the rut because bucks are hoofing it during daylight, deer respond well to calls and the woods hasn't succumb to the chaos of the chase phase.

Chase phase is just days prior to peak breeding. This is the time where buck figure out which does are nearly ready to breed and they chase 'em down. Predictable feeding patterns where does lured bucks past you become disrupted by intruder bucks, posturing and sometimes all out brawls right in front of you. Travel corridors that presented broadside deer that you could set your watch to are suddenly quiet. Trail cams reveal shooter bucks parading by under the midday sun. The inconsistency, frustration and excitement of the chase phase is unparalleled in the deer woods.

Breeding will soon follow and it is usually about a week after the rutting full moon. Breeding can last two weeks depending on the herd size and buck to doe ratio. Following breeding is another surge of sporadic activity called post-rut. Post rut can be a very effective time to hunt as bucks struggle to breed every last doe and the does attempt to get back into their normal feeding routine.

The rutting full moon as described by Charles Alzheimer is the second full moon after the fall equinox. This year the equinox was Sunday, September 22nd. That placed the Harvest full moon on Friday, October 18th. So the rutting full moon is the 17th of November and that means that some of the best hunting action may wait for another week until the 2nd week of November to begin. The peak of deer activity this year looks to be the November 11th through November 27th.

Good luck and consider taking some serious time off the week before and the week of Thanksgiving. I hope you see a big one.